But the situation has changed in two yearsOn paper Washington scrupulously on its promisesWe can just identify it by different means8 of net sales from January to June at EUR 23Finish the besos and abrazos the kisses and KissThe renewal will continue without precipitationIt is quite lucid about the risks he takesA statutory change that meets officiallyMore reason to focus on the quality of the indexFor its part Metrobus had also asked a vetoAt their last meeting in Lecce on 12 June, the G8 Finance Ministers welcomed to see the exit of the tunnel of the crisis. Do you share their optimism matter
I would say that it is still in the tunnel, but that you see the output. We have avoided the disaster scenario of a depression, which was still an option last fall. This is clearly behind us. The risk of a bank collapse is now rejected. Very negative growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year are behind us. For developed countries, we are headed toward zero growth by the end of 2009 before attending a return to positive growth. That said, are Governments capable of maintaining a growth for a return to full employment in the next few years It is now the big question.
Yet, the Ministers asked IMF support to help them out of the crisis and reflect on the best ways to reduce their public debt. It is therefore a little too early
No, it already speak and especially action. This does not mean that it must remove public deficits today because private demand is still not present. The budgetary effort must continue, otherwise we would in the situation of the 1930s. This year surely and for much of next year. But, if Governments do not now reflect implementation in place structural reforms to reduce budget deficits, I am afraid markets to panic before the flight deck of the indebtedness of some States.
At the beginning of the year, the assessment of the potential losses of the banks by the IMF has been very criticized in terms of the method. The ECB has published less important figures. Are they more relevant
The work done by the Fund is serious. For the United States, the figures that we have published proved in accordance with those of the Federal Reserve. We therefore have some credibility in this area. We've done our best for Europe and we see well that will correct in the future. The most important is to be transparent. Since the publication of the results of the "stress tests" conducted by the US Federal Reserve has certainly helped calm financial markets.
You are therefore advocating for Europe, where the result of the "stress tests" major banks currently conducted will be ready in September, publishes them in turn
For the Fund, more transparency is better. Regardless of the position that it may have had before US this exercise led by the Federal Reserve, the publication of the results had a stabilizing effect on the financial markets. For example, many thought that Citigroup was in bankruptcy. The results show that Citigroup is not well, but these fears were exaggerated.
Are you concerned about the collapse of the private to the developing capital flows
The collapse is not specific to emerging countries. It concerns all countries. Private flows are in clear regression. In the last quarter of 2008, the figures are enormous. The statistics, we have for the first quarter of 2009 are significantly more favourable. We are seeing a reversal of trend. That is observed bond issues of State and more generally the private bond emission or emission of shares. The return is much faster than it could consider a few months earlier. The problem is in bank credit, where the return to normal is slower. Banks are engaged in a movement of the multiplier coefficient of credit reduction. But the situation is not dramatic that dreaded three months ago. Investors are less fearful. More generally, the risk of external financing crisis declined. We probably did not use all our new resources. It is rather good news.
Fear you, the crisis passed, international imbalances are not corrected with an America that consumes and a China that produces and has huge trade surpluses
Non. Before the crisis, in brief in the extreme, the American consumer is not spared contrary to his Chinese counterpart, which spared too. Today, half of the equation has changed. The US household savings rate from 0 to 5 today have understood that their investments essentially stock for their retirement were risky. The promise of receiving 6 on average per year proved to be false. The American consumer will therefore continue to increase its savings and thus curtail purchases. Consumption and investment, in the United States spending, are likely to be relatively low in the coming years. Therefore, that external demand compensated.
On the other side, China has decided to encourage domestic demand. The Government considers the establishment of a system of health coverage. When this system will be implemented, Chinese households save less for their disease spending or other and therefore consume more. Therefore, one can imagine a scenario where the trade balance improved supports growth in the United States, and the increase in domestic demand supports growth in China. The success of this scenario largely dependent on global growth in the years to come.
Do you now see worrying signs in the financial markets
Non. I see, for the moment, no bubbles or bubble formation. That said, regardless of the regulation is put in place, the profit motive remain the engine of the behaviour of market participants. Do not make any illusions: the regulation will never be perfect and there will be other excess.
