On paper Washington scrupulously on its promisesWe can just identify it by different means8 of net sales from January to June at EUR 23Finish the besos and abrazos the kisses and KissThe renewal will continue without precipitationIt is quite lucid about the risks he takesA statutory change that meets officiallyMore reason to focus on the quality of the indexFor its part Metrobus had also asked a vetoThe main centre of SNCF freight losses isolated car iSpring 2007: Daniel Bouton, the President and CEO of Société Générale, enumerates possible alliances with other European institutions before the trade unions. He flirts with even the idea to launch an offer on BNP Paribas, which then weighs the same weight in the stock market. Spring 2009: the course fell under 40 euros, valuing the Bank red and black 23 billion euros. Three times less that two years ago, less than half of BNP Paribas. We know what has happened in the meantime: fraud Kerviel, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the impairment of assets, the woes of its asset management subsidiary, which was leaning to the Crédit Agricole. And a difficult case of stock which damaged the image of the Bank and assigned its internal cohesion.
A look more closely, Société Générale has yet demonstrated some resistance to breaking financial. It has not sunk after Kerviel. The huge earthquakes of October she crossed without too much damage. And its results are not fallen into the red. Then why such a market penalty Because the crisis has completely rebuilt the model on which the Bank has built its success. For ten years, "socgen" reinvested exceptional results from its bank financing and investment (BFI) to activities of retail growth countries, mainly in Eastern Europe.
But the situation has changed in two years. Frédéric Oudéa, the new boss, has formally recognized that the BFI would not end its past profitability. The subsidiaries in Eastern Europe face a severe recession, the Czech Republic to the Russia. And the impairment of assets - the Bank has spent EUR 8 billion to date - inflate even if the situation deteriorates. CEO will therefore not make the economy of a large strategic review. The Bank has in fact three options before it: the independence, the alliance with a French bank or the merger with a foreign competitor.
Frédéric Oudéa now appears to regain his independence strategy that has long forged culture House. Let us be clear: Société Générale may still live only, because it has enough cash to cope with a severe credit crisis. But the questions that Daniel Bouton arise all top two years about the critical size of the Bank, its level of own funds or its engines of growth arise with even more acute today. And, we have seen, its capitalization is no longer here to protect, his single "poison pill" being the strong presence of employee shareholders to capital. "That displays one or two quarters as the previous and BNP Paribas will have a golden opportunity to launch its OPA" prognostic a large French banker.
Can the project of "very large French Bank" out of cartons Nothing is less sure. Because BNP Paribas must digest the acquisition of Fortis. And it is not certain that its leaders want to reset the conquest of the SocGen, that has already fobbed them twice, in 1999 then in 2008, just after the Kerviel case. The Elysee Palace, which has never ceased to promote the creation of this great champion Bank, could stay on his hunger. So a third thief Watch: Credit Agricole, which has forged links with Société Générale in recent years. The two banks were near their brokering activities, and then those of asset management. An axis is certainly formed as to counter the plans of BNP. But a global merger between Société Générale and Credit Agricole SA appears difficult, would no doubt to the veto of the regional funds.
For the SocGen, the scope of the possible is reduced to France. The doors are closed side mutualist: Caisses d'Epargne and Banques Populaires will are reconciled, while the Credit Mutuel threw his vest on Cofidis and Citibank in Germany. Remains La Banque Postale, with which the General asked milestones in electronic payment and credit to the consumer. But, again, the clash of cultures would be as wrong to imagine a union before several years. As two years ago, black and Red Bank will therefore find its best allies outside its borders. The list of combinations has not changed: BBVA, Santander, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Barclays... But, as two years ago, the smarter remains the one with the Italian UniCredit, which would give rise to a champion of retail banking in France, Italy, Germany as in Eastern Europe, and to provide the General BFI relays of growth that are likely to default over the next years.
